Hale's NFL Picks

What happened in Week 18?

(Hale handicaps all games, but not all games are "picks")

Hale's one rated game (not a Best Bet) didn't click last week. This week, Hale breaks out with his first Best Bet of the post-season. But you won't find out which game it is on this page.

Best Bets (last 15 weeks): 18-10

Week 19 Public Game

(A random game so you can sample Hale's oh-so-wonderful analysis)

• Pittsburgh + 2.5: Pittsburgh showed the world last week that the AFC's reigning champion from last year's Super Bowl won't go quietly into the night. And now they're getting points from the Patriots, who lay points at home as well as Beavis reads Shakespeare (under 35% past 3 years; 2-8 if the spread's close).

There's this thing called momentum, and while Pittsburgh has been rolling (except for some mild setbacks to the excellent Panthers on the road and 49ers), the Patriots seem a bit different since their Dallas loss -- they had to come from behind 22-0 against the woeful Giants...nice intensity. Pittsburgh blasted the Colts out of the water last week at home.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the Steelers have the 2nd best ATS record in the NFL: 11-6 while the Patriots have fallen short of expectations again and again, 7-9. At home, New England is 4-4 this season, but is 0-5 against tough defenses and teams.

Most interesting matchup, stat-wise, is on the ground. Yes, we all know that Jerome Bettis is a man on a mission. But how will he do against the #6-ranked ground defense of New England (94 yards per game)? Meanwhile, the Patriots don't have a rushing attack to speak of (#26 of 30), and will be facing the #2 running defense in the league. Bledsoe will have to carry them in the air, since the ground (and Curtis Martin)will be covered, and that may be a tall order against a Steeler pass coverage that allow only 180 yards per game (#4 in the NFL).

When all is said and done, Kordell Stewart is still the ace-in-the-hole for Pittsburgh. His ability to do it all will keep the Patriots off-balance, and help show Bill Parcells the door so he can coach the Jets. Steelers pull off a not-too-surprising upset.

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As you probably already know, past success is not a guarantee of future results. While many hours of preparation and research go into each week's picks, Hale provides no warranty, implied or express, for their success. And anyone who can guarantee you a win is either lying or has ties to organized crime.