Hale's NFL Picks

Week 6 Picks

• San Francisco - 10.5
  When the Niners are favored against a weak team/defense, they've covered 75% of the time the last few years (5-0 on the road). The Rams are 0-12 when getting points at home against a division rival since 1988. Also, when HomeDogs, St. Louis is: 2-6 when their opponent's off a win, 2-11 when off a game where they allowed over 28 points, and 0-6 (since 1985) when off a game where they scored a lot. In this matchup, the Niners have covered 11-2 as visitors (including 7 of the last 8). There might be a "revenge factor" as the Rams want to avenge the 34-0 beating taken at the hands of the Niners. Hale's not sure that's going to happen, though, as SF is just a superiour club. SF is getting it done with their top-5 defense as well as offense, and on offense should roll up the yards against an ineffective Lamb defense. The Niner QBs carve up the Ram secondary as they coast in a big yardage win.
  

• Denver - 3
  The Chargers are 7-1 when getting less than a field goal, and 8-2 when a dog against a division rival (10-3 v. AFC overall). Denver's 1-7 when favored against their division, and 2-9 when favored off a win (0-6 after 2 covers). San Diego is 2-11 SU their last 13 games in Denver. This is the Broncos first REAL challenge at home (the Jets and Bucs don't count), but the Chargers haven't done well against good competition on the road (see: Green Bay blowout). Now, Denver's no Green Bay, but they're also better than the Oakland Raiders, who the Chargers could only beat by a TD. You've got the #1 ypg Denver offense lining up against the #30 (that's last in the league, folks) ypg Charger defense. The rushing ypg matchup is almost as good. There's actually D in Denver again, and the Broncs should win easily.

For Your Information Only

• Oilers/Bengals: 10-1 OVER in Cincinnatti
• Minnesota: 14-3 OVER when home off a loss v. an opponent off away
• Bills/Colts: 6-18 UNDER (2-9 UNDER in Buffalo)
• San Francisco: 17-4 OVER v. an opponent who just lost
• Kansas City: 16-5 OVER after allowing more than 20 points

As you probably already know, past success is not a guarantee of future results. While many hours of preparation and research go into each week's picks, Hale provides no warranty, implied or express, for their success. And anyone who can guarantee you a win is either lying or has ties to organized crime.