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Week 3

Week 2 Recap

All of Hale's games went 8-6-1, thanks to some horrible offense in the NFL in Week 2.   Those of you who checked back on the web saw that Hale updated some great over/under predictions late in the week, and those were both nailed.  (no, Hale's not counting those o/u's in his totals below -- just messing around with 'em in preparation for future weeks -- though 10-6-1 sure has a nice ring to it!)

Things would've gone better had the Oilers' rushing game showed up, the Bucs got another 1/2 point or the Steelers passed for more than 110 yards. The Bills had 187 yards total offense and still
covered? C'mon. 

Week 3 Public Games

• BENGALS + 8: When the Packers play a team that has just covered after failing, they're 12-2 overall (11-1 if favored, 6-2 if on the road). The favored trend becomes 14-4 if you go back to 1992. If both teams just won, and both are good-scoring teams, then for the entire NFL, the underdog is 2-10. The Packers have been particularly good if coming off consecutive covers (5-0-2). They're also 6-1-1 if favored by less than 10 v. an AFC foe (4-1 overall v. AFC Central). Ok, so what's working against Green Bay? They're 2-10 after back-to-back home games, and the Bengals are 9-1 (straight-up and ATS) v. the NFC at home the past 5 years. When underdogs more than a field goal at home in a non-division game, Cincinnatti is 8-1 since '91. When the Bengals are getting points in September after winning, they're 6-1. The Packers offense should man-handle the Bengals' yard-giving defense, particularly if Favre is on. But with so many angles going in the Bengals' favor, it doesn't seem like a slam-dunk to take the Pack. Look for a game in the 20s with the Bengals rushing the ball like crazy and Favre passing well, but don't be surprised if Cincinnatti wins this one outright.
  
• Lions + 5½
  Hale has a hard time seeing the Vikings giving up points here. When Minnesota has won their last two straight and is laying points, they're 5-15 since 1991. Plus, the Lions have failed twice in a row... that sets up the Vikings to be over-valued since when the Vikes are favored against a team that's just failed consecutively, Minnesota is 30% going back to 1989. Also, when the Vikings have just had a great game picking off passes (between 3 and 5 interceptions), they're 1-4 the past 4 years. Also in Minn's favor is that, league-wide, when a high rated team just won and is playing a low-rated team that just lost at the home of the "good" team, they get too many points (1-8 since 1988). When the Vikings play against a division rival after a road game, they're 10-23. Meanwhile, the Lions are 14-8-2 ATS as September RoadDogs, and 16-5-3 as RoadDogs against a division rival after a fail. Finally, when Detroit has just scored 24, they are 21-5 against the spread in their next game. While the Vikings are #1 in scoring and playing a defense that is near the bottom, this might be where they get just a bit too much credit.
  
• CARDS/EAGLES over 39

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