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During Week 7, Hale was finally went on his long-planned vacation, checking out the gorgeous foliage in New England. He was going to swing by Foxboro, but it didn't fit in with his itinerary.
This week, Hale hunkers down and checks out some interesting games. Oh, and did you know that not counting a disastrous and horrendous Week 3, Hale is 37-27 overall (Best Bets 2-1 overall)? Man, one bad week will bring down your whole season's stats... (just ask Green Bay).
Only one of the following is a Best Bet, which is given away in the weekly email.
Vikings - 5½ : The Vikings are this
year's unstoppable team with an aura of invincibility. Not only are they winning, but
they're doing it with offense and defense and, oh yeah, covering (4-1-1). The Lions have
been mostly disappointing, While both have trounced the Bucs, at least Minnesota could be
the Packers. The only two games this year the Vikes haven't covered is when they're laying
points on the road, where they're 4-12 the past 6 years. Meanwhile, the Lions are 3-0 when
getting points in the Dome the past two years, and 7 of 10 since '94. In head-to-head, the
Lions have covered v. the Vikings 5 of 7 at home. Minnesota is averaging 35 on the road,
but needs to hold their opponent to fewer than 20 when away from Pontiac. Lots of angles
pointing to the Lions make it tempting, but Hale's gut and the Viking offense make this a
Viking pick.
BEST BET
Bills + 2: Uh, the Bills are the better team here. When a team
that's a better-scoring team is a road underdog against a worse-scoring team, they cover
70% of the time. When a decent-scoring offense is a road-dog to a worse-scoring defense,
they cover 70% of the time. In fact, the Bills offense is better than the Panthers'
defense in almost every category (Hale's favorite: #6 pass completion offense against the
62% pass completion defense of Carolina). Throw in the Collins' quit and you've got a
demoralized and unfocused Panther team. Bills win outright.
RAMS + 9 : First, let Hale tell you why
the Niners should cover. When SF plays at the Rams, they've covered 16 of 17, including 6
straight (yikes!). Also, the Rams are 2-12 when playing their second divisional game of
the season, and 25% when an underdog at home. Having said all that, this isn't your
typical Rams team. This one is rolling up 300 yards a game, and passing for over 200 yards
a game. Their rushing average is 10th in the league, and the Niner rush defense is 20th.
Don't get Hale wrong: San Fran will still win this game for their 17th straight conquest
over the Rams while scoring over 30 points. But Hale goes against the overwhelming trends
of the past and predicts the Rams will keep this closer than you think.
Jaguars + 7½ : Can the Bronc's
domination continue? Hey, the Jaguars ain't no slouches. On the road, they've kept all
their games close, losing to the Bills by only a point last week. While the Jags are 0-3
road dogs the last 2 years, the Broncos are 10-2 in that same span. It's when they're
favored against a team that lost after a win where Denver starts slacking (3-9 since '94).
Look for the Jags' defense to give Mr. Davis a tough time, as they hold people to under
3.5 yard/carry and cover this one.
Lions/Vikings OVER 47.5
Chargers/Seahawks UNDER 36.5