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Hale had his first perfect week where all four (4) of his picks were perfect, including the his Best Bet of the Vikings over the Packers. In addition, Hale expressed concerns over the Eagle offense in his Giants pick, as well as the public game where Hale said Flutie would light up the Colts. Finally, Hale had the Broncos over the Raiders, in an afternoon game.
(Allow Hale his little joy of bragging -- he's quite honest and up-front when he has a less than stellar week)
So, four games got lucky, you say? Overall this week, 12 of 14 predictions have covered, not counting the Monday game.
Hale's favorite non-picks:
While Hale can't promise perfection every week, he seems to have hit his stride. If you're interested in getting on-board for an exciting Week 13, drop Hale a line!
RAIDERS - 7
The Redskins don't do well on the road against teams that are tough against the
pass (3-16). When a road team that's almost last in def/points per game plays a team
that's in the top 10, they're 1-16. The Raiders are 13-4 at home when their foe failed
last game only, but are 0-4 when their opponent is around 20% W/L.. The Raiders have
covered against the common foes, and are rated higher than Washington in most categories.
The Raider defense is the difference as they stop the Skins and rebound from the Bronco
game.
JETS - 8½
Against a team that's mid-pack of point-scoring, the Panthers are 6-0-1 roaddogs,
and 11-4 overall when away last week only. The Jets, though, are 10-3 when their foe just
covered, but 0-8 at home to a team ranked in the bottom half of things (4-13 since 1990).
Road teams who are near last in defensive points per game are 0-9 this year when playing a
team in the top-3 in that category. The Jets have done better against their common foes,
while the Panthers beat only the Rams. If you don't count their first home game (Ravens),
the Jets have been particularly impressive at home, scoring at least 20 each week while
allowing no more than 12. The Jets have better rankings, and for example, are averaging 16
points allowed compared to the Panthers' 25 points allowed. The key may be passing, as the
Jets' offense puts up over 220 yards in the air in this cover.
Falcons - 5.5
First off, the Falcons haven't covered a spread between 3 and 7 since 1991. Having
said THAT, you have a Ram team with a myriad of 25% homedog trends. Standing out from the
homedog pack is that they're 0-5 where their opponent just failed (but covered before
that), 1-16 against their division as homedog, and 3-21 at home v. a team in the top 5 of
scoring. In the past matchups, the Rams have failed 5 of 7. In the present, the Falcons
are covering well on the road, while the Rams have failed at home every game except for
the Jet miracle. All in all, Hale's comfortable with this spread, and sees a 2 TD margin
for the Falcons.
All games analyzed and handicapped in the free weekly email
VIKINGS - 2½ This
is the game we all want to see: the rematch of the Packers' embarrassment on Monday night
between two elites. If both teams just won and a .900 W/L home team is hosting a .750 road
team, the homefav is 14-5 ATS since 1989. Against their common foes, the Vikings have
covered better, scored 5 more ppg and held them to 5 few ppg. This is the first real test
for this Packers team on the road, as far as rating of opponent goes (best previous: 20-27
loss at Pittsburgh). The Vikings have been trouncing people at home (31-7 ave score), but
they've been mostly softies, too. The Vikes are a cut above statistically, and there's a
surprising standout at turnovers: GB -4, Min +4. This is a Minnesota team that likes to
pick off passes, and Favre better look sharp because -- with revenge and all on the road
-- he's going to have his hands full
to pull out the cover. Vikings cover.
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GIANTS - 5½ The
Giants seem to rise to the occasion when favored at home against their division (11-2).
When playing a last-rated offense, the Giants are 16-3 (8-1 if at home). Against teams
they've both played, the Eagles average only 7 points scoring, while the Giants have
scored 20. With a -12 TO factor, Philly isn't looking good except for the fact that their
passing defense allows the #2-in-NFL 156 yards per game. It's the Eagles offense (such as
it is) that can't make them cover this game.
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BRONCOS - 10½ The
Raiders don't do well against top-rated teams (3-11 ATS), and the Broncs are flying high
as homefavs (12-2) and 13-4 at home off a win. Road teams that are near the bottom of the
league in scoring ppg against an elite team in that same category are 3-16 since 1984. The
Broncos have outscored their common foes by 13 more points than the Raiders did. While
Hale has some respect for the Raiders' defense, this is shaping up to be a 30-17 game,
Broncos.
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