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Hale's recent hot streak continues.
In week 13, Hale's Best Bet of the Jets came through with easy, as they blew out the Panthers, 48-21. All his picks are 4-2 so far, with one more Monday night which came through.. And since Hale handicaps all the games, they were 11-4 against the spread.
In the past two weeks, all Hale's games -- picks and non-picks -- are an amazing 21-6 for 78%. All picks are 9-2.
Some snippets of the email:
Ok. Hale's going to post ALL his games that he would if you were receiving his weekly email this week. A special treat for you and a reward for your lurking and monitoring.
There's one catch.
They'll all be jumbled together. You won't know which is an unrated game, which is a "pick" and which is a Best Bet. When all the games are already played, Hale will come back here and put the ratings near the games so you can see how he did first-hand. What follows, then, is what you'd get in the weekly email this week, with the exception of having the games ranked:
Dec 8: All games are non-picks unless otherwise noted:
Cowboys - 6
It looks like the Cowboys get a little overvalued when playing a bad team. Here, they're
playing a team that's around 40% (3-14 ATS) and 0-7 on the road. Still, when the Saints
are at home, and both they and their opponent just lost, the Saints are 2-11. The Cowboys
have been covering on the road lately, particularly against the worse teams (Eagles,
Cards, Skins, etc.). The Saints were shut out by the Niners but a six-point spread might
keep them close to a talented Dallas team. It should be a yard-fest while the Cowboys roll
'em up in the air.
This wasn't a pick, but Hale has just one thing to say: EIGHT YARDS
RUSHING FOR THE WHOLE GAME??? Ok. I feel better now.
Packers - 4
Sure, the Packers are 18-4 favorites if their foe is off a cover, and 12-1 if only the
last game was a cover. But when Green Bay wins by 7, their next game is only 1-6. Tampa
Bay is 0-4 after a win this year. Overall, NFL teams that allowed about 16 points last
game and the line is now between 2 and 6, the favorite is 1-13-2. If both teams won, one
is a top 7 team and the other just so-so, the better team is 21-10 ATS. Green Bay is 5-2
against the Bucs in TB the past 7 meetings, but Tampa Bay has shown they can play with the
tough teams at home (see: Vikings in Week Nine). If Favre can avoid his recent plague of
interceptions, he should be able to carve up the Bucs like a nice turkey.
VIKINGS - 16 - PICK
Can the Bears salvage their season with an upset here against the mighty Vikes?
They're 10-2 when playing a team that just covered, and 12-3 if they're off two straight
wins. Minnesota is 17-4 if they just covered by more than 7, and 7-2 against .250 foes. If
the over/under line is around 47 and one team scores a lot and the other doesn't, the one
near last in scoring is 3-13 ATS (1-9 on the road). .250 teams against .900 teams are 0-5
ATS the past 3 years. The Vikings are 4-2 against common foes, while the Bears covered 2
of 6 and scored less than half the points. Head-to-head, the Vikings have covered 1 of the
last 8 at home against the Bears. Chicago has shown they can cover against the good ones
(see: Falcons), but the Vikings demontrated they can blow out inferior competition (see:
Redskins, Bengals). This Minnesota team is flying high, and scores a full 17 more points
than the Bears a game and against this near-last defense, should have a field day with a
cover.
Pretty much nailed this one right on the head.
Rams + 1 - PICK
If both teams just lost, one is bad at scoring and the other is dead-last in scoring, the
"bad" one covers 60% of the time (15-4 if it's on the road) since 1991. This
Eagles offense is pathetic, but its defense keeps it around somewhat (8th in NFL in
defensive pts scored and #3 in NFL in pass yards per game). Considering that the Rams
haven't broken 100 yards rushing in 7 games, they're going to have to rely on the air
game. With this close spread, the Rams are in good shape, as long as they don't have to
spot the Eagles a field goal, and should win outright.
Again, the Rams didn't break 100 on the ground, relied on the air game, and the
points didn't help them enough.
49ers - 8½ - PICK
The 49ers are 15-1 on the road when playing a team that's bad in allowing points. When
playing a bad defense on the road, SF is 16-4 since 1985. Sure, the Panthers usually cover
at home, but at home against a team that's around .750, they're 0-3 ATS since 1995.
League-wide, when a top team plays one near the bottom and is laying between 7 and 10
points, the good road favorite team is 17-8 ATS (47-20 if you don't consider where they're
playing). When SF plays its second to last road game of the season, they're 15-4 since
1979. When a top-5 scoring offense plays a mid-pack one, the better team covers 13 of 15
times this year (7-1 if on the road). The Niners have smacked around lesser teams at their
home turf a few times (Rams, Saints, Skins), and while it's clear that the Niners aren't
the elite team they once were, the Niners have plenty of motivation to put this team away
after a close call at 3-Com as the Panther defense lets SF win by 12.
It's nice that the Niners had some great offense, but you can't allow 200 yards
on the ground and expect to dominate.
Bills - 4½
Ok, so the Bills got a lesson in humility as they gave away the game against New England.
Will they bounce back? When they're on the road against a team off a fail, the Bills are
1-13 since '94 (0-8 if favored). Meanwhile, if the Bengals just lost by 2 TDs and are now
home, they're 14-3 since 1981 (9-0 if underdog). That good Bengal trend is balanced out by
what happens when they play a team in the top-10 in offensive scoring (0-7 overall last 2
years). The Bengals are also 17-4 in their second to last home game of the season. When
the Bills played on the road against other bad teams (Colts, Panthers), they were able to
cover by an average of 10 points. The Bengals haven't covered well at home, giving up an
average of 7 points more than they scored against some good teams. The Bengals don't have
the answer for the Bills high passing, high-scoring attack and could lose by more than 7.
BRONCOS - 13½ - PICK
When the Chiefs are on the road and play a team that just won, they're 1-8 recently.
Denver, meanwhile, is a 17-6 home favorite that's 11-3 after 2 wins. Also, Denver is 11-1
after playing San Diego. When Denver plays a weaker offense, they may be giving a few too
many points at home since they're 2-7 in these scenarios. Mid-pack teams that are playing
an elite team (where both teams just won) are 3-10, which goes against KC. Denver has
covered against the common opponents where KC hasn't (3-5). Past matchups favor the
Broncos also 5-2 at Mile High. The Chiefs have yet to cover on the road, and Denver has
been winning (and covering) at home by a 35-18 clip. The Chiefs don't have a defense to
stop T.Davis (#22 yards rush/game defense), and with the way Denver can score, they should
cover this one.
Ninety-three yards rushing against the #22 defense AND 2 interceptions thrown?
Denver's really lucky to have won this game.
JAGUARS - 7
Detriot is facing a team that amasses lots of passing yards per attempt (0-8 on the road
since 1994). Also, when on the road facing a squad that just won off a loss, the Lions are
0-7. Meanwhile, if the Jaguars are facing someone who's off a win, they're 14-3 at home
(11-1 if they, too, are off a win). Overall, when both teams are off a win, if the
road-dog is around 40% and the other's around 75%, the road team is 0-6 since 1995. In the
NFL this year, where a high-scoring team plays a team that's a bit worse in that category,
the better one is 12-1 ATS which favors Jacksonville. Something that's a concern is that
the Lions have covered better against the common opponents, scoring about the same number
of points. The Lions have mostly failed on the road, but Jacksonville has been erratic
laying a TD this year. While Hale likes the +10 TO ratio of Jacksonville, this is a case
where both teams' less-than-stellar defense undoes what the offense accomplishes. Gun to
the head: tiny lean to the Jaguars.
STEELERS - 4
The Patriots just scored a bunch of points, and are 6-0 underdogs when that happens. In
fact, New England does well against a decent offense (14-6) but is only 4-13 against a
tough defense. The problem is that Pittsburgh is always tough at home, and when favored
off a game where the net to's were nil, are 21-3. If the Steelers are homefavs to a team
that wins only 40% on the road, Pitt covers 12-3. Overall, if the roaddog just won a close
one and the home favorite just lost a close one, the road team is 1-8 (this trend applied
to Arizona last week). In the Patriots favor, though, is that if both teams are about the
same and the underdog is off a loss, they're 10-0. If the slightly worse team gets 4
points, they cover 11 of 15 times. In the past, the Steelers have won straight up at home
4 straight, but only covered 2-2. New England hasn't been covering on the road lately,
falling just short in 2 of the last 3. The only two Steeler home fails have been against
top offenses, which excludes New England. Kordell has an opportunity to slice and dice the
New England secondary, but this one is almost too close to call: Steelers cover.
Chargers + 3
It seems the Chargers get over-valued against bad rushing defenses (3-10; 0-5 if
underdog). But on the road facing a team that's only won 25% of their games, the Chargers
have been 9-1. The Redskins are 5-15 when favored against a team that just lost. Yes, you
say. But what happens if the Redskins just won by 10 points and are now at home, favored?
Going back to 1990, they're 4-2 in this scenario. The Skins just don't do well at home,
especially against a team off a fail (0-4). League-wide, when a losing lousy team plays a
worse team that just won, the lousy team (Chargers) are 8-0 ATS. Flip side to this is if
that same lousy team is near last in total points and is playing a team that is in the top
5 of total points, they're 0-6 on the road... so it's a wash. Another dog of a game that's
a close one to call between two bad teams, but Hale goes with San Diego.
Giants + 4.5
The Giants do well against teams that don't get good rushing yardage (16-4 ATS) and the
Cards do ok against mid-line defenses (11-2). If both teams are off a loss, the .333 road
dog covers against the .500 home team 13 of 14 times. The Cardinal defense is just a hair
better than the Giant offense, but these might be a few points too many for the Cards to
cover.
JETS - 7 - PICK
The Jets are 1-12 at home against conference foes, including a Week 2 fail to Baltimore.
When NY plays after they covered and their opponent fails, they're 2-12 favorites. A
top-third team playing a top-notch team (like the Jets) where they were both home and both
just won has the visitor 0-5. The Jets have covered better against their common foes,
scoring 5 more points and allowing 5 fewer. Against the AFC, the Jets are 13-4. This
competition shapes up for the Jets to be similar to the Miami game, where Tuna's team was
at home against a decent team and won by 11 with defense.
Um, that 400 yards passing on 60 throws was nice, but how about getting more
than 70 yards on the ground, boys?
OILERS - 6
The Ravens are 0-11 roaddogs when playing a team that's good at yards/attempt passing. In
the past, the Ravens have covered 5 of 7 against the Oilers on the road, though the recent
trend favors the Oilers (2 of 3). The Ravens aren't covering well at home, and the Oilers
are looking to pound someone after a couple of tough losses. The Oilers are ranked higher
in many stat categories, and the passing game of McNair and Co. should give them a lead
that a good scoring defense should keep for 'em.
Dolphins - 2½
Miami does well against teams off a fail (9-2 and 5-0 on the road). If their opponent just
lost, Miami is an 8-3 favorite, and 6-1 on the road. On the other side of the ball, the
Raiders are 0-10 against teams who have low total points. They're also 2-9 at home against
teams off two straight losses. Miami's a different team on the road, and aren't covering
well, being outscored 19-21, and in December on the road, they're 2-11. While Miami is the
better team in the rankings (they're scoring 5 more than who they play -- Raiders scoring
3 less), with two top defenses, it's hard to call who'll come out on top but Hale leans
towards Miami.
FALCONS (no line because of Chandler's status)
If you are like what you see, drop Hale a line to get more information!