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Last week, Hale put up all his games. Overall, to be honest, they didn't do so well. That brings his performance for the past three weeks to 26-16 for all games against the spread, which is still pretty darned respectable. In that timespan, picks are still 10-6, and Hale will take that any day of the week!
Again, these are all of the games, handicapped and commented on. The order is somewhat jumbled, so it's not readily apparent which is a pick and which isn't. These are sent out weekly via the email if you're interested. The first week is free, and after that... well, not-so-free.
>Bears + 13.5 - PICK
On the one hand, you have the Bears, who are 3-11 on the road where their foe just
covered. On the other, you have the Packers who are 0-5 at home against low-rated teams
(over-valued). Where a road team has lost three straight (Bears) and is playing a team
that's lost 2 of 3 (winning second back), they're 16-3 against the spread. Against common
foes, the Bears haven't done that much worse than the Packers... not 13.5 points worse.
While the Bears have only won on the road once, they've covered big spreads at good teams
2 of 3. The Packers couldn't beat the Eagles at home by more than 8, and Hale wonders,
with injuries and all, whether they can get the Bears by more. The Packers have the #1
pass completion percentage offense, and will be facing the #30 defense in that category,
but Hale goes with his gut and leans toward the Bears.
The gut was right as the Bears forced a couple more Green Bay interceptions.
>JAGUARS - 2.5
Brunell may be out for a while, and it's up to the rest of the team to gel without him.
The Oilers are in a position they love: 17-4 when on the road getting points against
someone off a cover. Problem is, that someone is a team that almost always covers at home
when playing a team that just won (15-3), and better if laying points (10-1). A #10 or so
team playing a somewhat higher-ranked team getting fewer than 5 points on the road is
4-19, including 0-8 the last eight. The Oilers have the revenge factor, as they try to
avenge Week 4's 22-27 loss, but Hale leans towards Jacksonville to eke out a home cover.
The Oilers got their revenge while holding Jacksonville to 69 yards rushing.
>Lions + 12
The Lions just scored a lot, which means they're in a 9-23 spot, and don't forget they're
9-20 against conference teams. When the Niners play against a team that's around 15% on
the road, they're 0-5 as HomeFav. SF has covered in past matchups 3 straight times at
home, and the Lions haven't been covering on the road much this year. The Niners are the
#3 scoring offense, and playing a defense that's around #25 or so. SF should roll on their
current momentum and win, but only by eight points.
Added Sat morning: 49ers: now favored to win only by 10 -- Hale was hedging a bit in his initial analysis, and if the Lions don't get these extra two points, Hale changes his tune: 49ers to cover (not a pick).
Niners roll over the Lions in a Monday Night Rout.
>Vikings - 10
Let's start with this: the Vikings are 0-10 RoadFav after being away two games ago (most
recently: Week 4). When RoadFav against a team near the top-10 in defensive points/game,
they're 0-6. While the Ravens are 5-0 against a team that's off two covers, they're also
0-4 at home against a mid-range defense. Going back 7 years, teams that have won three
straight favored on the road against a team that's lost their last game but won the two
before that are 3-13 RoadFav. .900 teams laying 10 points on the road are 2-8 since 1994
(SF, Wk5; Den, Wk9). The Ravens have kept things close at home for the most part, losing
big only to the Jaguars. Something to keep in mind for the future: while the Vikings have
a great offense, they're like UCLA in that their defense is suspect (#20 in total
yards/game, #24 in the air). Still, 10 points is a good safe number for them to lay, but
Hale's somewhat cautious...
Defense of the NFL's greatest team gives up 28 points to the Ravens in this
push.
>Cards - 2½
The Eagles are 6-0 at home when facing a team that's in the top 10 in total points, and
10-5 as a HomeDog overall. If both teams were at home, the team off the close loss is 12-1
ATS v. the team off the close win (17-4 since 1994; 10-2 if now on the road). Also, the
team that lost is 17-4 if they're a decent scoring offense against an offense that's near
last (9-2 if favored). Finally in trendsville, if the team off a loss is so-so rated and
playing a team that's last (which won), they're 11-2 (5-0 on road). The Cardinal defense,
while not stellar, should be able to keep the surging (?) Eagles to under 200 yards
offense as they cover by a field goal.
Damn, Hale hates it when he's right, but it was a cover by exactly a
field goal for the Cardinals.
>Falcons - 6½ PICK - Best Bet
The only two teams that the Falcons have failed on the road to were the Niners and the
Jets...and these Saints ain't in that class. In fact, they covered at home against every
team but the Niners, and these Falcons ARE in that league so there's an edge to Atlanta
there. Against teams they've both played, the Falcons have scored an average of 13 more
points while giving up 4 fewer. The Saints' offense is no match for the Atlanta defense,
and Atl is #7 in total yards defense while the NO offense is #28 in that category with
only 250 a game as the Falcons cover easily.
Falcons won this one easily, and kept the Saints under 220 total yards.
>Bengals + 4½
The Colts are sooooooo bad when a home favorite (2-17 when their defense just picked off
an interception; 1-13 when their opponent just lost; 1-12 if the spread is between 3 and
7). Meanwhile, when a lousy team plays a team just as bad and is getting between 2 and 6
points, they're 17-7 (12-5 on the road), and 11-2 roaddogs more recently. The only
downside against the Bengals, trendwise, is that if both teams just lost, and a team
that's bad re: offensive points is playing a team that gets a few more ppg, the underdog
is 0-7 this year. The Bengals have pretty much failed against all home teams, and neither
team has a defense and only so-so offenses. Gun to the head, Hale takes the Bengals.
Hale didn't like this game to start with.
>Patriots - 7
Hale just loves it when the Rams are at home getting points (11-25 overall since 1990),
especially when playing a medium offense (0-6) or a team around .600 (0-4). New England is
clearly the better team, and their defense is Top 10 in many categories where St. Louis'
offense is near last. Seven points may be a bit much, so Hale downgrades this to just an
"FYI game" for the Patriots to take.
It looks like the Rams' defensive line was the difference, racking up 5 sacks
for 43 yards as the Rams win it.
>BILLS 7 Raiders
Roaddogs who lost by 10 playing against a team that won by about 14 are 10-4 since '94. In
fact, a mid-pack team getting 7 on the road against a somewhat better team is 10-2 overall
(Raiders). The Bills have been averaging a 25-19 score on the road, and have covered
against both good teams and bad teams while traveling. Buffalo has a somewhat better
defense, and the offenses are about the same. Slight edge to the Raiders to cover but not
win.
Raiders don't cover as the Bills win convincingly.
>PANTHERS - 3
How 'bout them 'Skins? Where the Redskins' opponent has lost two straight, they're 5-14
ATS. On the road, they're 0-7 against bad defenses. When two crappy teams play, if the one
that just won is on the road, they're 0-6 ATS, which is even more stuff against the
Redskins. Hale can't ignore that Washington has covered 5 of the last 6. But to be honest,
the Panthers must be sick and tired of playing GOOD teams, and should be delighted to take
out some aggression on a team that thinks it's finding itself as Carolina wins and covers.
Three big turnovers cost the Panthers their chance here...
>Chargers + 6½
After the Seahawks have a good cover by a TD, they're 3-10 the following week as a home
fav, and 31% overall as HomeFav since 1992. While the Chargers are 0-6 dogs if their foe
lost their last game only, they shoot up to 12-3 as roaddogs against a sound team.
Overall, if both teams are off a loss, the team around 30% is 15-3 against a team that's
around 40% (favoring Chargers). When you take that last angle and factor in the line, if
the spread's around a TD, the roaddog's won 9 straight. Seattle's only won by an average
of 4 points at home, losing outright to the Raiders. The Seahawks have better overall
stats, and are scoring more while allowing fewer points. When you look at the matchups,
though, you've got two teams with so-so defenses playing teams with bad offenses. The
Seahawks look good here, but this seems like too many points for them to lay.
Chargers throw -- count 'em, SEVEN -- interceptions and roll up 66 yards
rushing.
>DOLPHINS + 2
While the Jets are 4-10 RoadFav since '92 (0-2 this year), the Fish are 5-10 when getting
around a field goal. If both teams were involved in high scoring games last week, but the
over/under line is just 42, the road favorite is 0-10 since 1988. If both teams are off a
win, the RoadFav who was away doesn't do well against the homedog who was home (homedog:
16-1). Remember, the Jets lost outright at SF, at St. Louis and at Indy. Miami has covered
against most everyone, with the *closest* home margin being 3 (Patriots). Sure, the Jets
have a great defense. But the Dolphin's defense is better, and should keep them in this
game enough to cover, if not win outright.
Close but no cigar in this 5-point loss.
>Steelers + 2.5
How 'bout them Buccaneers, huh? The Steelers roll into town, getting points, and Hale
noticed that Tampa Bay is 5-15 when laying points at home after they just covered. After
scoring 24 points and now at home, they're 1-9 ATS. Pittsburgh's an 0-3 against poor
defenses getting points on the road (see: Oilers), but at least does ok against mid-pack
teams overall (16-7) and when roaddogs (6-1). Overall, teams that are about 50% W/L are
20-9 roaddogs in close games (+/- 3 point spread). The Steeler defense may be a tad bit
better than Tampa Bay's, and Hale predicts that TB gets overvalued and has a letdown
against the beatable Pittsburgh squad.
Well, the Pittsburgh squad was beatable, but Tampa Bay clamps the Steelers with
80 yards of passing.
>Broncos - 12½ - PICK
Sure, the Broncs are undefeated (though they're looking sloppier and sloppier). One stat
that Hale's can't ignore is this: when the road team has won two straight, and the home
team won only their last game and is coming home after two away, the road team (uh, that's
Denver) is 2-16 since 1986 (0-7 if favored). Denver has scored almost twenty more against
their common opponents, and the Giants haven't covered against a decent team at home all
year. Mr. Davis should have a field day against the #23 ypg rushing defense as the Broncos
cover with ease.
Um, "sloppy" finally reared its ugly head as Broncos pass for only
159 yards on 36 attempts. (Mr. Davis did great as Denver rolled up 170 yards on the
ground)
>CHIEFS + 2½
Was that Dallas with 8 yards rushing last week? Here, they're against a team that's 40% at
home, but there's 0-7 RoadFav in that situation. Maybe this is a chance for the
disappointing Chiefs to get some pride back, since as homedogs, they're 4-0 in
non-conference games, and 22-3 homedogs overall (including 9 straight against teams ranked
between 4 and 10). If both teams just lost and there's a decent team in off pts/game
laying road points to a team a little worse off, the roaddog is 0-6 since 1993. Dallas may
have something to prove also, and has the better rankings to back it (they're still #7 in
rush yds/game against a Chiefs offense that's #21), but Hale gives a slight lean towards
the Chiefs and their motivation to carry them.
To be fair, also added Sat. morning: * Dallas: now an underdog to the Chiefs by 2.5 -- When Dallas is a roaddog after scoring fewer than 7 points, they're 6-3 since 1983 (8-3 on the road regardless of spread). As an underdog where both teams are off a loss, they're 11-5 ATS (9-2 if a roaddog). Kansas City is a 5-15 homefav against top 10 scoring defenses. All roaddogs (Dallas) who are ranked 5 in defensive scoring against a team near #20 in that category are 30-9 since 1993. This makes Hale feel much more confident about Dallas to the point of making them a pick.
A breakout game of 51 yards rushing for Emmitt and Co. as the Boys
miss it by half-point.
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