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Hale had another perfect week, except the perfection is that he didn't get either game right. Fortunately, they weren't rated as picks since he had little confidence in them -- he was right!
To receive the entire rationale WHY -- including trends and statistical analysis, send for the email.
[snip]
. . . and got their heads handed to them by the Jets, 3-28. When all is said and done,
Hale looks for the confident Broncos to cover by two touchdowns.
The above was posted the week before the Super Bowl. The following is what everyone got in email who requested it...
Welp, here we go, winding up the season on a high note. The Falcons are
probably happy just to be here, and Denver's been here before. Reeves is
motivated to prove he can win the "big one," the same albatross that Elway got
off his back last season. When Atlanta is a roaddog against a team off a win,
they're 7-2 ATS the past few years, and 12-5 ATS in all roaddog situations. Of
course, Denver is good as a "home" team, but when the Broncs are off a win,
they're 29-15 regardless where they play. Where both teams just won, and both
are in the top 7 in defensive scoring/game, the roaddogs is 3-13 ATS. They both
beat their common opponents by a similar average score (26-16) and had similar
success against the spread with them (Atl: 3-2; Den: 3-3). While the Falcons
have covered better than the Broncos (Atl: 13-5; Den: 11-7), the average margin
over the spread favors Denver (#2 in NFL @ 3.9 points ppg over while Atl last in
NFL with 6.7 ppg under). The Broncos' offense has the advantage when they have
the ball, with top 3 rankings in most categories while the Atlanta defense is
only so-so in many areas (pass yds/game: Den off #7 v. Atl def #25). This is
soemwhat offset by Denver's weak pass defense (#29, allowing 236 yards in the
air per game).
Remember, Atlanta beat the #1 team when they toppled Minnesota in Minnesota
(sure, D.Green was playing _not to lose_, which Denver won't be doing). Against
other top competition this season, Atlanta lost by 11 at San Francisco, and got
their heads handed to them by the Jets, 3-28. When all is said and done, Hale
looks for the confident Broncos to cover by two touchdowns.
UNDER 54 = info only