This week Hale experiments in color, as a visit to the website will tell you. Woo-hoo. For even more excitement, your email will have the teams colored if your mail program changes the hue of quoted text. The innovations around here are simply astounding, to say nothing of cutting-edge.
Now, for the games.
Packers - 17.5
Did you see that gigantic spread in the second installment of the Battle of the Bays? This
game should *still* be a total joke. We're looking at a team in the Top 3 in almost every
statistical category against a team in the Bottom 3 in almost every statistical category
(and that's just when the Bucs have the ball). Green Bay is 14-6 laying points at home
(8-1 against a division rival), and won the first game between these two teams in Week 1
(at TB) 34-3. The Bucs are just 6-15 when getting points on grass. The Pack has won at
home by an average score of 34-14 (and that's counting the 3-point Niner game). Green Bay
might actually score 50 in this one, but don't let impressionable small children watch the
gory carnage.
Eagles - 4
This should be a good test for both teams. Hale's been thinking the Eagles are over-rated,
even before Hale found them laying points to the Dolphins last week. However, the Panthers
are the "Colorado Rockies of Football:" great at home (average score of 29-8),
mediocre on the road (average score of 16-19). Carolina is 7-3 as RoadDogs (2-0 this
year). Key stat: the both the Philly rushing offense (#6 in NFL) and Carolina rush defense
(#27) get 4.3 ypc. Does Hale think that Carolina can walk into the Eagle's nest -- where
opponents have been held to 87 rushing ypg -- and ink a victory? As much as Hale's been a
believer in Carolina all season, this is an Eagle team that has momentum and will be
focussed on beating a Panther team that's ho-hum on the road.
NYJets/Arizona OVER 36.5
Redskins - 3
A week ago, this was shaping up as a battle of two 6-1 SU teams, which should get all the
hype and glory and excitement the NFL could muster. Unfortunately, not many people believe
in Washington (present company included), and Indy fans won't believe the Colts are for
real until they see the shiny Lombardi trophy (speaking of Lombardi, cool Nike TV spots --
clever, but do you think he really would approve?). Washington is 3-10 since 1994 as
HomeFavs, but 2-1 this year. Also, at home, they're 2-9 when the spread is less than 3
(0-5 if laying less than 3). Both teams played the Patriots and Jets, and the 'Skins
averaged a 10-point victory margin, while the Colts had to manage a split (18-point
drubbing to New England at Indy). The Colts just don't seem to have an answer to the
Washington offense, which, among other things, averages 7.4 yards per pass (#2 in NFL) and
makes very few mistakes.
Pittsburgh - 6
These two teams have played 4 times in the past 15 years or so. Pittsburgh has won each of
them by an AVERAGE of 19.8 points (yes, folks, they covered each one). Hale doesn't see
why this game should be any different. There's the Steelers' top-5 defense lining up
against the sorry Falcon offensive game. There's the Atlanta "scoring" which
hasn't mustered more than 18 points in a home game all season. There's the 7.7 ypa passing
defense of the Falcons facing the #4 ypa (7.2) passing game of the Steelers. Pittsburgh
rolls up over 300 yards in a laugher.
Miami + 3
Of course, this is the game that's been circled on calendars since Ol' Helmet Hair signed
with the Fish months ago. Grudge match deluxe. The fact that the Cowboys have been
struggling lately probably takes a lot of the air out of this one; it'd be more satisfying
for JJ to knock Dallas off if they were playing .750 ball. As RoadFavs, Dallas is 2-7
after a fail. Hale had to go all the way back to 1993 to find Miami getting points at
home. When he went back further (last 15 years), he found that, as a HomeDog, the Fish are
4-1 after allowing over 28 points, 7-1 when playing a good defense, and 10-6 overall.
Against their common opponents, the Dolphins have averaged 6 more points while allowing 2
more (and Miami was on the road in all 4 games). Dallas is averaging only 12 points on the
road this year, and Miami's averaging 25 at home. Dallas' rushing defense should be
semi-effective, but Hale's expecting the probable return of Marino to spark the #4-ranked
pass completion offense (61%) to an upset victory.
New England - 4
Interestingly, these two teams have taken turns covering (and oddly enough, winning) the
last 8 times they've played in Foxboro. If that pattern continues, the Bills would cover
(they failed there in Week 8 last season as 2-point favorites in a 14-27 loss). As
HomeFavs, the Patriots are 4-10 (29%). However, when they've just given up fewer than 2
TD's, they're 10-2 (83%). The Bills have yet to cover on the road, and New England is
averaging nearly 30 at home. The Bills have been getting it done this year with defense,
because they realize that the offense is god-awful (around #25 in most categories). Hale
looks for the same result as the last two times Buffalo's played tough competition
(Dolphins and Steelers): a lop-sided loss, (and that doesn't even count the revenge
factor).
Cincinatti/Jax OVER 41
Detroit/Giants OVER 41
Ravens/St. Lou UNDER 43
Buffalo/NewEng OVER 39
Chargers - 1.5
The Chargers (and Humphries) got clocked last Monday, so they're hurtin' and uncertain.
Elsewhere, Seattle would like to avenge the 29-7 loss in the season's first week. Against
division rivals, when Seattle is a HomeDog seeking same-season revenge, they are 8-3-1. On
the other hand, the Chargers are 9-3 when laying points on the road (6-1 on artificial
turf). On the road, they're 5-0 in domes, 5-1 after a loss, 7-1 after a fail, and 9-1 on
the rug. On the road, the Chargers have averaged 22 points, and that's at Green Bay, at
Denver, and at Oakland. Sheesh. If they can average 22 at *those* places, they should be
licking their chops at the thought of going into Seattle, where the disappointing Seahawks
have ALLOWED over 30 points in each game against some good opposition (and failed in every
game this year). The Chargers rank higher than the Seahawks in most statistical
categories, including average points scored (#10 SD off v. #28 Sea def). The Chargers win
by a touchdown.
Houston + 6
Hale likes Houston in the underdog role (were you listening last week when Hale called for
them to win outright against Pittsburgh?). Even more if the Oilers are on the road, but
you can't have everything. The only team that the Niners have beaten on the road this
season is the Rams (Damn! Their ineptitude keep popping up EVERYwhere!). Meanwhile, the
Oilers have covered every game at home this season (including the loss to the Chiefs).
You'd be surprised, but San Francisco doesn't have a significant advantage in a matchup
stat. Hale wouldn't be surprised at all if the Oilers upset and win outright.
Bengals + 2.5
Eeek! Another game no one outside the AFC Central cares about! Hale was all for
Jacksonville last week (who racked up 420 yards passing yet still lost). But this week,
the tide turns. The Bengals, when coming home after being on the road a while, are 21-7-1
(75%). Also, as HomeDogs, they're 6-2 after a loss, and 6-2 after allowing over 28 points.
The only problem with all this 75% stuff is that the Bengals tighten their collars a bit
when playing a division rival (especially at home). Coach David Shula's 9-19 versus his
division. At home, the Bengals are 3-11 against the AFC Central since 1992, including 0-5
recently (remember that great Oilers our-kicker-can-kick-a-field-goal-and-yours-can't game
3 weeks ago?). Jacksonville has not covered as a favorite yet (0-3 in franchise history),
even against the lowly Lambs last week (5 interceptions?). The recent Shula firing (like
father, like son) throws an uncertain variable in the team chemistry mix: will they pull
together to win for the new coach? Hale takes the points and looks for a spirited Bengal
team to cover.
Giants + 10
The Giants seem to like the role of RoadDog: they're 16-6 (73%) since 1993 (but only 1-2
this year). Detroit is a great-looking home team (8-3 last 2 years), but they seem to have
hit their usual mid-season swoon before rallying at the end of the season to save Fontes'
job. Is 10 points at home too many? Dunno... the Lions covered 12 against Tampa Bay, but
couldn't cover 10 in Week Six against the Falcons. The Giants have not been effective on
the road this year (avg ppg: 11), with their only road win coming by a scarce TD against
the stinky Jets. Considering the Giants offense is #29 in everything except "sack
yards allowed," Hale could conceive a Lions cover here. However, after going to a
reliable and trusty source, Hale takes the Giants and puts Magic 8-Ball back in the
drawer.
Ravens - 6
The Rams have one distinct statistical edge: they lead the league in sack yardage allowed
(almost 30 ypg), and are #3 in times their QB gets clocked (almost 4 per game). Maybe
Georgia F. should be taking snaps, but enough about Hale's vengeful and sadistic fantasies
(yes, Hale lives in the Greater Los Angeles area). As HomeFavs, the Ravens/Browns are 10-5
while the Rams are 4-10 as RoadDogs. If you only count spreads under 7 points, you get
this: Ram RoadDogs, 0-5; Raven HomeFavs, 6-1. When the underdog Rams are coming off a win,
they're 0-9 since 1993, and 1-9 after a cover. The Rams average margin of loss this season
on the road? Try 23 -- throw out the Card game and it's up to 33 points difference per
road game. But wait: the Ravens just barely covered 6 against the weakly Saints at home.
Hale feels mildly encouraged when seeing the pass defense numbers of the Rams: 6.8 ypa,
63% pass compl., 251 ypg. A small play on the Ravens.
Kansas City + 3.5
A matchup of two peaking AFC teams. Well, on second thought, perhaps Denver's already
peaked. The Chiefs are by far the toughest team that's visited Denver this year. As
HomeFavs, Denver's 0-8 after going over the totals line, 0-7 after scoring a lot, 0-6
after allowing a lot, but 14-3 at home when their opponent has just won. KC's 10-3 in
division games, but only 3-11 on the road after scoring more than 4 TDs. The Broncos will
try to avenge their 14-17 loss at KC earlier this season, which was, incidentally, the
last time they lost. Then again, after seeing the likes of Ravens and Bengals lately, the
Broncos might not be mentally prepared for a team of the Chiefs caliber. Hale leans
slightly towards the Chiefs.
Ny Jets + 4.5
Every week has to have some ugly games. No, REALLY ugly games. But wait... there are some
interesting trends with this one. In October, the Cards are 18-7 off a home game since
1983 (12-0 if they just lost). Arizona is also 6-0 when HomeFavs against an AFC opponent
this decade. Yet, for some reason, Hale goes with his gut (does that make it a gutsy
prediction?) and is looking for the Jets to upset and score their first outright win of
the season.
Chicago + 6.5
The Bears have covered at Soldier Field when these teams have played one another in 5 of
the last 6 meetings (10 of 14 overall). On Monday nights, the Vikings are 0-6 when playing
on rugs. Furthermore, the Vikings have gone into a mid-season pointspread swoon the past 3
years (1-7). One thing to be wary of, though, is that the Bears are only 1-5 as HomeDogs
the past 2 years. That would explain why this game isn't a pick. That, and the Viking
defense should keep the Bears in check most of the game. Still, the Vikings haven't won
big on the road yet this year, and Hale's thinking that this is just too many points to be
giving. Bears lose but cover.
Denver/KC UNDER 41.5
SD/Seattle OVER 42
Hous/SanF UNDER 41.5
Minn/Chic UNDER 39
Dal/Miami OVER 41.5